A new poll indicates Democrat Beau Bayh is leading Republican Max Engling in the race for Indiana secretary of state, with Bayh demonstrating stronger voter support and name identification. The poll, conducted by Virginia-based Bellwether Research between October 8 and 11, found 43% of likely voters supported Bayh, while 35% were likely to cast their ballot for Engling.
Libertarian Lauri Shillings received 6% support, and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard garnered 5%. Eleventh percent of those surveyed remained undecided.
Beyond direct voter support, Bayh, son of former Gov. and U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, showed significantly better name recognition and favorability ratings. The poll results indicated Bayh had a 35% favorability mark against 18% unfavorable. Engling, by contrast, had 12% with a favorable opinion and 17% unfavorable. A key factor in these findings appears to be that 48% of polled voters had never heard of Engling, compared to 27% who did not know of Bayh.
Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research, which conducted the poll, highlighted Bayh's position. Matthews, who has overseen extensive polling in Indiana, including for former Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, noted, “Not only does he have a name ID advantage, he’s got almost a two-to-one favorable unfavorable rating, which is almost unheard of.” She added that Bayh driving up his favorable rating, not just name identification, is a testament to his current standing.
The poll also revealed differing levels of partisan support, with 85% of Democrats backing Bayh. Independent voters gave Bayh 39% support, more than double any other candidate. Engling received more tepid backing among Republican voters, with 68% support.
Bayh's campaign initiated statewide television advertising in August, a month before Engling. Engling began his campaign in May as a little-known staffer to U.S. Sen. Jim Banks before defeating current GOP Secretary of State Diego Morales at the state Republican convention. Campaign finance reports filed recently indicate Bayh continues to maintain sizable fundraising and spending advantages over Engling.
Regarding voter concerns, government corruption was identified as the top issue, and 69% of those polled opposed the construction of new data centers in the state. Bayh has actively campaigned on both topics, denouncing what he calls "corrupt spending by Morales." Matthews stated that "Corruption has been a big part of his paid media message, so that’s really I think resonating."
The Bellwether Research poll surveyed 839 likely voters and oversampled Republicans, aligning with the state’s typical GOP lean. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
These findings, which place Bayh and Engling far ahead of Ballard and Shillings, are largely consistent with another poll from Hoosier Leadership for America, a political group associated with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks. That poll, conducted September 27-30, showed Engling with 38% support to Bayh’s 37%, with Shillings at 6% and Ballard at 5%, and 14% undecided.
